GOLD PRICE PREDICTION TODAY: WILL GOLD AND SILVER RATES CONTINUE TO GO DOWN?

Gold price prediction today: Where are gold prices headed? What’s the outlook for silver prices? Gold prices may trade with a bearish bias, and the silver market is very tight, according to Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan:

Gold Performance:

• Spot gold, although stuck in the $4700-$5100 range, continues to exhibit huge volatility on conflicting signals and indicators. In the week ending February 13, spot gold traded between $4878 (February 12) and $5120 (February 11). The yellow metal plunged over $200 on Feb. 12 as Bloomberg broke a story of a Russian memo by the Kremlin that outlined Russia's return to the US Dollar along with possible strategic deals with the US in several key areas like natural gas, offshore petroleum, critical minerals, etc. However, gold quickly recovered as Russia and the US refrained from officially commenting on the document.
• Spot gold closed with a weekly gain of 1.54% at $5042 in the week ending February 13; it was its highest weekly close ever.
• Liquidity was thin on February 16 as the US observed the Presidents’ Day Holiday on February 16 and China began its Lunar Holidays that will last until February 23.
• At the time of writing this article, the yellow metal was changing hands at $4992, down nearly 1% for the day, as investors turn cautious before the second-round of US-Iran talks scheduled to begin in Geneva on February 17. MCX April gold at Rs 154,800 was down 0.70% for the day.

• The US and Iran are set to resume indirect talks on Tuesday in Geneva. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proposed terms including that Iran shouldn’t possess enriched material or nuclear enrichment capabilities. He also suggested limiting the range of Iranian ballistic missiles, citing an MTCR limitation of 300 KMs that Iran is supposed to adhere to.
• The US is ramping up its military buildup near Iran as it keeps its options open. Pictures from Earth-Observation confirm that the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is now in the Arabian Sea off Oman. USS Gerald R. Ford, one of the largest warships, is also being redirected from the Caribbean Sea to the Middle East.
• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Monday began a series of military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz-- the strategic waterway through which about 20 percent of the world's oil production passes.
• US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine are also scheduled to start in Geneva on Tuesday, though talks are likely to be sticky.

• On Friday, authorities in Shenzhen, China issued a warning against "illegal gold trading activities", including apps offering leverage to retail investors and online live streams promoting bullion sales.
• The authorities also warned against using phrases like "gold prices will soar" or "make big money by buying gold", and adulterating materials that resemble pure gold or other precious materials.

• As of February 13, total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 100.13 MOz, up around 1.18 MOz YTD; holdings are hovering around the highest level since August 2022.
• Registered COMEX gold inventory slid to 17.57 MOz on February 13-- lowest since February 13, 2025, and is down over 27% since the record peak of 24.25 MOz seen in April last year.

• Japan's annualized 4Q QoQ GDP, released on Monday, came in at 0.2% Vs the estimate of 1.6%. The UK's 4Q QoQ GDP at 0.1% trailed the estimate of 0.2%.
• US data released last week were somewhat mixed. The Nonfarm payroll report released in February was largely reassuring as the US employers added 130K jobs in January (forecast 65K), while the unemployment rate edged lower from 4.4% to 4.3% Vs the estimate of 4.4%. Two-month prior data was revised lower by 17K though. Average hourly earnings rose 3.7% y-o-y that matched the estimate. Average weekly hours all employees came in 34.3 Vs the forecast of 34.2 as labour force participation improved from 62.4% to 62.5%. The job report showed the biggest drop in part-time jobs since June 2022; more people quit their jobs as they became more confident about job prospects. However, investors are taking nonfarm payroll reports with a pinch of salt as the final benchmark payrolls revisions slashed 862 K jobs (forecast -825K) in 2025. It means that the US employers added merely 181K jobs in 2025, which is the worst job growth since 2003 outside of the global financial crisis and Covid periods.
• US Retail sales stagnated (forecast 0.4%) in December after rising 0.6% in November. Retail sales control group contracted by 0.1% Vs the forecast of a 0.4% increase.
• Much-awaited US CPI data (January) were mostly subdued as headline CPI rose 0.2% m-o-m (forecast 0.3%, Prior 0.3%) and was up by 2.4% y-o-y (estimate 2.5%, prior 2.7%). Core CPI rose 0.3% m-o-m (estimate 0.3%, prior 0.2%) and increased by 2.5% y-o-y, in line with the estimate and slightly cooler than the prior reading of 2.6%. However, no rate cut is expected in March.

• Despite a somewhat encouraging January job report, the US Dollar Index posted a weekly loss of 0.75% in the week ending February 13 as it closed at 96.91. Coller-than-expected CPI data weighed on the Greenback. At the time of writing this article, the Index was trading at 97.05, up by around 0.15% for the day.
• Last week, driven by rate cut optimism going forward as US CPI data was mostly subdued, the two-year US yields fell by nine bps to 3.40%, the lowest since October 17; ten-year yields at 4.04% are the lowest level since December 3.

• As per the CFTC data, in the week ending February 10, money managers have decreased their bullish gold bets by 400 net-longs to 93,038; the net-long position was the least bullish in 16 weeks.
• Long-only positions fell 1,053 lots to 116,157, the lowest in more than 23 months.

• Major US data/reports in focus include January 28 FOMC minutes (Feb. 19), S&P PMIs (Feb. 20), real personal spending (Feb. 20), PCE Price Index (Feb. 20) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Feb. 20).
• The Eurozone's and the UK's PMIs to be released on Feb. 20 will also be in focus. UK's Dec. job report and January's CPI report to be released respectively on Feb. 17 and 18 will also garner investors' attention.
• Japan's national CPI data (Jan.) will be released on Feb. 20.

• In the very short-term, geopolitical developments will be the primary driver of gold prices.
• Considering the January US nonfarm payroll report and easing geopolitical worries, gold is looking somewhat extended at current levels, though concerns over the tech sector continue to limit the downside.
• The US Dollar Index is struggling to gather upward momentum despite encouraging job and ISM reports as the US yields fall.
• A deal with Iran may not be without certain roadblocks and binding terms, which may keep gold supported at lower levels.
• Overall, gold is expected to range trade with a slight bearish tilt unless geopolitical tensions escalate further.
• The yellow metal may test the support around $4900 (MCX Gold April 152,000); a successful breach of this support will bring $4850 (Rs 150,300)/$4740 (Rs 147,000) into focus. Resistance is at $5050 (Rs 156.500)/$5125 (Rs 159,000).

• The silver market in China remains exceptionally tight as the near-to-second month spread is at a backwardation of 354 Yuan/Kg. However, silver is under pressure on possibility of easing geopolitical tensions and a firmer US Dollar.
• The white metal may trade between $70 (Rs 218,000) and $84 (Rs 262,000) in the near-term. A decisive breach of $70 support will embolden bears to test the $64 (Rs 2000,000) support.